The Democrats are in panic mode. Their much touted “blue wave” has vanished. Their smarter partisans in the media are now hedging their bets.
The result, as I will show in this article, will depend mostly on turnout. That’s why conservatives such as you are so important. Each of us must dedicate our efforts in the final days of the campaign to getting our side to the polls. Don’t believe the media propaganda that this election is a slam-dunk for the Democrats, and certainly do not let them discourage you.
You will notice that I have limited the scope of this analysis to the House. Most sober analysts now concede that the Republicans will keep control of the Senate, and probably even increase their margin there. That doesn’t mean we can let our guard down—President Trump certainly isn’t—but if you have a Senate race where you live, you also have a House race since all 538 congressional districts are in play. A rising tide for our side in the House will also be reflected in the Senate races.
Media’s Top Democrat Rag is Hedging Its Bets
The Washington Post is the most powerful Democrat voice in the media. It’s located in the nation’s capital, where its presence is overwhelming, and all Swamp denizens in good standing must read it daily to get their instructions. On any given day you will find dozens of anti-Trump and anti-Republican screeds in its pages, both fake news and opinion. Good luck finding one article on the other (our) side.
Today the Post is in a quandary, though. It cannot let its Democrat base down by admitting that the “blue wave” it was touting all year is fake news, potentially demoralizing them to the point of becoming a self-fulfilling admission. Yet it has what it vainly believes is its “professional” reputation at stake. The result is a curious approach: “We’re going to win, but don’t be surprised if we don’t win.”
This is evident in its poll published Thursday, November 1—probably the last poll the Post will publish before Election Day. The headline captures the ambivalence: “Democrats in prime position to retake House, but wild cards remain, poll shows.” But the poll results reported in the article are even worse news for the Democrats, if you know how to read their tea leaves.
The poll was taken in 69 battleground districts, where it finds 50% of likely voters supporting the Democrat candidates, 46% the Republicans. Now, polling is a quasi-sham at its best, and these “generic” Democrat-Republican questions are the sham at its worst. They almost always show the Democrats coming out on top. So why do the Republicans control the White House, both houses of Congress, and the majority of governors and state legislatures?
Part of the answer is in the ways the polls decide who are “likely voters” who get asked the pollster’s questions. Pollster John McLaughlin notes that on Election Day 2016 the nation was divided 36% Democrat, 33% Republican—yet pollsters assumed as low a GOP base as 25%. In other words, Republicans made up 33% of the electorate but as little as 25% of the poll sampling. That alone can account for why most polls were wrong in 2016—and are probably wrong today. I’ll leave it up to you to ponder whether this is just stupidity on the part of those pollsters, or a reflection of their bias.
However, there’s a second important reason why the polls so often get it wrong: turnout. They ask people a passive question that requires no action, at a particular point in time. And “are you likely to vote” is never the same as who actually votes on Election Day. The Washington Post has to acknowledge this disparity (emphasis added):
“Turnout remains a critical factor in next Tuesday’s balloting, and given past patterns, Democratic turnout is at greater risk of falling short of what the candidates in competitive races might need to win. The party’s current level of support in the poll of battleground districts is fueled by a 21-point advantage among voters under age 40, a 21-point advantage among independents who lean toward neither party and a 40-point advantage among nonwhite voters.
“These groups have turned out at low rates in recent midterm elections. In 2014, 36% of eligible African Americans voted, along with 21% of Hispanics and 16% of people under age 30… At the same time, 41% of whites cast ballots…. Overall, voters who did not turn out in the 2014 midterms favor Democrats by 55% to 42%, while those who did vote split 49% to 48% in Republicans’ favor.”
“Republicans draw roughly even support with other higher-turnout groups, among them seniors, who currently split 48% for Republicans versus 49% for Democrats. White voters — who make up a larger portion of the electorate in battleground districts this year — narrowly prefer Republican candidates, 51% to 47%.”
It gets even better for us. Immigration control is the best issue for Republicans, and it is the issue President Trump is emphasizing in the final days of the campaign. And the Post’s poll finds that “54% of voters in battleground districts say the ‘U.S. should do more’ than it is currently doing to try to stop illegal immigration across the border with Mexico, while 21%% support taking less action…” That’s a margin of more than 2-1/2 to 1 in favor of the Republican position, folks—in the 69 battleground districts that are expected to determine the results of the midterm election.
You can see why the Democrats privately are in panic mode, no matter what they say publicly. The Republicans are even or ahead among the segments of the electorate that are most likely to vote next Tuesday, while the Democrats are depending on groups whose turnout is usually abysmal. And the Republicans have a potent advantage on the prime issue of immigration control.
Finally, I would note that another poll (reputable, and used privately by political operatives) finds that "Voters with an unfavorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi are choosing Republican candidates more than 3 to 1." So be sure to make her an issue when talking to voters.
We must turn “most likely to vote” into “voted”
That doesn’t happen automatically. We must make certain our “likely voters” become “voters” next Tuesday. Here’s how we do it:
- Participate in the get-out-our-vote in your area. Don’t be a passive conservative.
In encouraging our likely voters to vote, emphasize the most potent issues. Immigration control (as shown here). The Democrats as a party of violence and intimidation, as a result of their takeover by leftist ideologues and mobs. The prospect of civil war if the Democrats win, with impeachment and incessant investigations of President Trump and Justice Kavanaugh as their priorities. The fact that voting for any Democrat is a vote for Nancy Pelosi.
Email this article with your comments to your family and friends, the members of your church and civic organizations.
Next, alert everyone by posting on Facebook and the other social media, in letters to the editor and the comments sections of articles and websites, and on your blog if you have one.
Call in to the radio and TV shows you follow.
- Make copies of this article and others at FedUpPAC.org and distribute them far and wide.
- And of course vote and make sure all of your family and friends that share your views also vote. If necessary drive them to the polls.
- AND DO THIS CONSTANTLY UNTIL ELECTION DAY.